城市精英 Chinese City Professionals (CCP)

Hello,

Thank you for coming to the CCP launch party in ON ANON about 2 weeks ago, I hope you’ve had a good time. You can now view the photos from that night on our website, just follow this link here (Remember to join this Flickr group, otherwise you won’t be able to see anything :P).

For those of you who have filled in the registration form at the party that night, we have created an account for you on our website. You should have received an email last week containing your login details. If you are unable to find the oringal email sent from our system, please try to retrive your password using the first part of your email address as the login (the part before the @). Feel free to send me an email if you experience any problems.

Once you have logged into our website, many secret pages will be open for you to visit. For example, to help our member preparing for the December CFA Level 1 exam, we have opened a dedicated forum for Professional Qualifications here. If you have any questions about these quanlifications, why not post your questions there? Maybe one of our members with such past experience will be able to help you out.

A couple of members have requested the contact list of our organization. Due to data protecting concerns, we are not going to distribute this list at this time. What we will do instead is using your business information (such as your employer, department, position etc) to run analysis about our members. This will provide answers to questions like “How many members works in Citigroup/Morgan Stanley? “, “How many members are working in Operations?” We can ensure you that your personal data will never be distributed to anyone for any purpose.

We are hoping to get together again in late Jan or early Feb for a professional event. Looking forward to see you all again!

Thanks and regards,
Geng Zhou
President of Chinese City Professionals

英国《金融时报》中文网经济事务评论员陈旭敏
2007年11月9日 星期五

现在是抛空中国资产的最好时机吗？未必，虽然目前中国A股仍在泡沫中震荡，楼市也处于观望之中，但是，从目前看，中国资产牛市的根本并没有恶化的迹象。

不过，对于海外投资者来说，也许他们已经对中国资产“牛市”的信心已经动摇。周四，全球首只通过做空中国股票市场来获利的ETF在美国证券交易所上市，这只以中国股票市场下跌获利的ETF，将双倍反向于新华富时中国25指数的日回报率。

虽然此前有美国铝业减持中国铝业的先例，也有“股神”巴菲特减持中石油的事实，但这些只是星星之火，尚不能燎原，不过，一旦这只抛空中国股市获利的ETF产品在美国挂牌，将会引来大量的巨鳄闻腥而来，尤其是已经通过QFII在中国A股投资的大行。

而且，从目前看，中国牛市的根基似乎也在正遭到蚕食。正在飚升的油价很有可能会改变中国传说中的“人口红利”，出口不变，进口增加，随着油价的继续走升，中国居高不下的贸易顺差很有可能日趋平衡，从而使国际收支失衡造成的股市和楼市泡沫反向重估，另一方面，高油价还会吞蚀中国企业的利润，从而使给目前高估的市值釡底抽薪。

根据中国海关总署的最新统计分析显示，中国的外贸9月份出口增速已经开始回落，虽然没有数据支持，中国的出口就此逆转，但有一点可能肯定，如果油价继续飚升，中国的顺差肯定会日趋平衡，从而使外汇占款减少，人民币升值压力减轻，与此同时，流入银行系统的资金也会急剧减少。

而且从目前看，油价仍未有歇足的意思。周四亚洲金融市场的全线尽墨，主要是受累于美国道指周三的狂挫。最近一段时间，美联储降息、美国次债危机的再次发作，使美元资产成为全球金融市场的“弃儿”，美元也跌至谷底，而且从目前看，毫无走强迹象。

作为美元的“跷跷板”，油价自然会揭竿而起。很显然，如果油价继续飚升，将使中国的“人口红利”成为泡影。什么叫“人口红利”，从宏观上看，就是一个国家国民储蓄多于投资，从而产生经常项目顺差，致使大量的国外资金流入境内，从而推动存量资产的重估。目前中国的宏观经济领域正在重现这一切，虽然有点过犹不及。

一个值得警惕的现象是，以有色金属和钢铁为主的周期性行业股票正在被市场抛弃，而且跌幅非常惊人，虽然无从知道这些行业业绩增长是否已经提前见顶，但是这些股票这么大规模、大幅度地被减持，不能让人怀疑一些基金已经先知先觉。

当然，中国的投资者没有必要认为目前A股牛市已经见顶，虽然周四A股的暴跌足以动摇所有投资者的牛市信心，狂挫271.76点，并一举击穿投资者的心理支撑点60点均线，而且大盘蓝筹股也全军覆没。

但是，对于中国来说，资产“牛市”的暂时喘息未必就是件坏事，尤其是在目前经济增长良好，银行系统健康的情况下，即使目前资产泡沫的提前被刺破，即使中国的银行系统也将受累，但以目前中国经济的承受力，至少能置于可控局面，而不至于诱发1998年印尼的危机。

[原文链接]

from FT中文网 - FTChinese.com by 英国《金融时报》吉密欧(Jamil Anderlini)北京报道

中国高层官员对美联储(US Federal Reserve)批准中国招商银行(China Merchants Bank)在纽约设立分行表示欢迎，称此举是向着可能在美上市迈出的重要一步。

招商银行(CMB)是中国的第六大银行，也是15年来首家获准在美设立分行的中国银行。而中国最大的银行工商银行(ICBC)也将很快加入这一行列。

中国数家规模最大的企业——包括中石油(PetroChina)和中国人寿(China Life Insurance)——都已在纽约上市。不过，自2002年《萨班斯-奥克斯利法》(Sarbanes- Oxley act)通过以来，没有一家中国大型国有集团在美上市。

一位政府高层官员表示，中国监管机构迫切希望提高国内银行的国际地位和企业治理标准，因此会鼓励这些银行在纽约证交所(NYSE)上市。

惠誉评级(Fitch Ratings)驻北京分析师朱夏莲(Charlene Chu)表示：“中国的银行争取达到在美上市所要求的标准，将是件很好的事情。”

“不过由于萨-奥法的严格要求，上市会遇到潜在的问题。”

现金充沛的中国各家银行一直在全球范围内寻找收购目标。在提高其声誉和树立全球品牌方面，在美上市将具有巨大的象征意义。

今年初申请在美营业执照的工商银行，上周获得了纽约州银行厅（New York State Banking Department）的批准，可在曼哈顿的公园大道(Park Avenue)设立分行。不过这还有待美联储的最终批准。

中国银监会(China Banking Regulatory Commission)监管二部主任楼文龙表示，定于12月在京召开的下一轮中美经济会谈中可能讨论这一议题。

招商银行申请分行执照已有五年多的时间，上周五才获得批准。这样的时间安排，可能是为了让美中谈判更为顺畅，并有助于说服中国政府给美国金融服务企业更多准入机会。

在批准文件中，美联储提到了近来中国监管和反洗钱程序方面的进步。

译者/李晖

原文连接

英国《金融时报》简•克罗夫特(Jane Croft)伦敦、吉密欧(Jamil Anderlini)北京报道

据悉，北岩(Northern Rock)已与中国工商银行(ICBC)、中国银行(BoC)等多家亚洲银行接触，目前该英国银行正加大力度，为自己寻找买家。

北岩的咨询顾问包括百仕通(Blackstone)、花旗集团(Citigroup)和美林(Merrill Lynch)，它们正努力为这家陷入困境的银行争取一次竞争更激烈的拍卖，希望吸引更多的潜在买家。

目前，北岩的咨询顾问正考虑出售该项业务、一次潜在的重组，或是将两者相结合的混合性解决方案。

外界认为，上述咨询顾问主动联系了至多50家潜在竞购方，以判断是否存在任何最初（收购）意向。这些潜在竞购方包括中国工商银行、印度工业信贷投资银行(ICICI Bank)、美国私人股本集团Thomas H Lee和中国银行。

针对那些表示可能有意收购北岩全部或部分业务的机构，北岩发出了一份详细的信息备忘录。在那些被认为收到此份备忘录的机构中，包括全英房屋抵押贷款协会(Nationwide Building Society)。

此份备忘录于上周寄出，其中包括任何竞购方开始尽职调查所须的财务信息。此举旨吸引更多的潜在竞购者。

北岩及其咨询顾问们希望确保，广泛寻找任何可能有意收购全部或部分北岩股权的机构。

然而，拍卖过程仍处于初期阶段，而且无法确定这些机构是否将竞购全部、甚至部分的北岩股权。

中国国有的中国工商银行最近入股南非标准银行(Standard Bank)，并一直在探寻俄罗斯和巴西的交易。以资产规模计算，南非标准银行是非洲最大的银行。

昨日，中国工商银行一位女发言人表示，她不知晓任何与北岩进行谈判的信息，也不知道有任何投资北岩的意向。

当被问及中国银行是否有意收购全部或部分北岩股权时，中国银行首席新闻发言人王兆文表示：“我没有听到过这个消息。”

原文出处

10 November, 2007
7:00 pm	to	11:00 pm

Dear CCP members,We are glad to inform you, Chinese City Professionals (CCP) has been formally launched and registered as an non-profit organization in recent days. We would like to use this opportunity to announce the establishment of our official website.Please register and have a look around. The “HOME” page is the CCP blog, where the CCP’s diary will be kept. All members can submit posts to be published here, subject to review. In the “About Us” page, you will find CCP’s mission statement, legal information as well as the current Officers. In the “Events” Page, you will be able to see information about all CCP events. All future information and announcements will be made at this page exclusively. In the “Shop” page you can purchase tickets for CCP events and any other services we may be offering in the future. All transaction are through Paypal, so you can have peace in mind knowing you are fully protected when purchasing. Then we have the “Forum”, which I am sure you all know what’s it for and how to use it:) We have some forums setup already and more are coming up! Finally you can use the “Contact CCP” page to give us feedbacks about the organization or let us know any bugs you’ve found on the site.Because Chinese City Professionals is a non-profit organization, we would need your help to keep the organization running. Therefore this website will become an membership-only site from Jan 1st 2008, where only paid members will be able to view certain contents. But before that time comes, all members will benefit from the free trail period we are offering. You are welcome to register now and try out all of the functionalities of the site. A notification will be sent out to registered members to purchase the annual membership for £10 on 01/01/2008.To formally introduce the organization and the committee to everyone, we are inviting you to a great launch party!

Details are as follows:

CCP Official Launch Event: A Night to Remember
Date: 10th November 2007
Venue : ON ANON, the Glam Bar
Address: London Pavillion, Piccadilly Circus, W1V 9LA, London
Time: From 7pm to 12pm but welcome to stay until 3am, if you feel like it.
Dress code: Smart casual
Door policy: CCP members or potential CCP members. (Please mention the venue name “Chinese City Professionals - CCP” if you arrive after 9:30pm and they try to charge you £10 to entry)
Map:

Places for this event is limited to 120 and it is selling out fast! To secure you chances, please book the tickets now on www.ChineseCityPros.org We offer 20% online discount! Standard admission to the party costs 12 pounds at the door, but members only pay 10 pounds online through Paypal! We will have a ticket office at the entrance of the Glam Bar (inside On Anon, 1st floor). The first 40 people to arrive at the event will have one free drink provided by CCP :)Looking forward to seeing all of you there!Thanks and best regards,Geng ZhouPresident, Chinese City Professionals (CCP)